A critical analysis of Morocco’s Green Hydrogen Roadmap: a modelling approach to assess country readiness from the energy trilemma perspective

Morocco, despite its heavy reliance on imported fossil fuels which made up 68% of electricity generation in 2020, has recognized its significant renewable energy potential. The Nationally Determined Contribution (NDC) commitment is to reduce emissions by 45.5% from baseline levels with international assistance and abstain from constructing new coal plants. Moreover, the Green Hydrogen Roadmap aims to export of 10 TWh of green hydrogen by 2030, as well as using it for local electricity storage. This paper critically analyses this Roadmap and Morocco’s readiness to reach its ambitious targets, focusing specifically on an energy trilemma perspective and using OSeMOSYS for energy modelling. The results reveal that the NDC scenario is only 1.3% (approximately $375 million) more expensive than the Least Cost, and facilitates a 23.32% emissions reduction by 2050. An important note is the continued reliance on existing coal power plants across all scenarios, which challenges both energy sovereignty and emissions. The assessment of the Green Hydrogen Scenarios highlights that it is too costly for the Moroccan government to fund the Roadmap at this scale, and that it could lead to up to increased imports of polluting fossil fuels for cost reduction. In fact, the emissions levels are 39% higher in the Green Hydrogen Exports scenario than in the Least Cost. It is therefore recommended that the Roadmap be reevaluated with a suggestion for postponement and reduction in scope. However, Morocco needs to aract significant international investments for accelerated electrolyzers and exports infrastructure build out for exports.