The Philippines’ Energy Transition: Assessing Emerging Technology Options using OSeMOSYS (Open Source Energy Modelling System)

The Philippines aspires for a clean energy future, but the effectiveness of its existing renewable energy (RE) targets and the role of emerging technologies remains uncertain. This study examines potential pathways to decarbonise the Philippines' energy sector, assessing the feasibility and economic implications of selected scenarios. The Open-Source Energy Modelling System (OSeMOSYS) was used to model various scenarios, including a least-cost scenario, an RE target scenario, a net-zero scenario, and scenarios investigating the impact of high and low offshore wind growth, as well as the inclusion or exclusion of nuclear power. Present RE targets were found to be insufficient to achieve significant emissions reductions, and suggested increasing the RE target to 52.4% by 2035 as a more cost-effective option. Floating solar PV and offshore wind showed notable potential as decarbonisation technologies, with high uptake in all scenarios. The World Bank's high-growth wind target (around 38 GW by 2050) is shown to be cost-effective. Achieving net-zero by 2050 proved technically feasible but highly capital-intensive, and will require significant private sector investment. The addition of nuclear power offers limited benefits in terms of cost savings and reducing emissions by 2050. The Philippines can improve its energy transition ambitions by raising RE targets and strategically integrating new technologies. While nuclear power may not be crucial, focusing on mobilising private capital and promoting renewables remains key to achieving a cleaner and more secure energy future.