Nationalism, Alliances, and Geopolitics: US-China-Taiwan Ties under Trump and Xi

18 September 2019, Version 1
This content is an early or alternative research output and has not been peer-reviewed at the time of posting.


This paper employs a three-step analytical framework to examine the prospects of U.S.-China-Taiwan relations under Trump, Xi, and Tsai. By identifying the “first move” by Taiwan (changing national identity and quest for recognition because of democratization), the “second move” by China (more forceful policy), and the “third move” by the U.S. (to restore the “status quo”), this framework has successfully explained this triangular relationship from 1996-2016. However, with the rise of populist leader such as Trump and Xi, either could make the first move, with the other making the second move, new uncertainty is introduced that previous policy may be ill-suited to dealt with. This paper engages on certain policy adjustments.


the United States
foreign policy


Comments are not moderated before they are posted, but they can be removed by the site moderators if they are found to be in contravention of our Commenting Policy [opens in a new tab] - please read this policy before you post. Comments should be used for scholarly discussion of the content in question. You can find more information about how to use the commenting feature here [opens in a new tab] .
This site is protected by reCAPTCHA and the Google Privacy Policy [opens in a new tab] and Terms of Service [opens in a new tab] apply.