International Relations

The Effect of Conflict on Diplomatic Representation

Ikuo Kinoshita Aichi Prefectural University
This research’s purpose is to examine the effect of conflict on diplomatic representation. First, new datasets are created, which include annual data and separate baseline changes and short-term changes. Second, ANOVA shows that the mean difference in short-term changes, but not in baseline changes, between conflict and no-conflict years is significant. Third, the 26 most impacted countries are selected for a case study. The results indicate that a shock to the legitimacy of a government or state leads to a downward change in diplomatic representation (the conflict effect). On the other hand, a celebratory event expands the size of diplomatic corps (the celebration effect). This observation follows our thesis even in a hard case with a long duration of conflict. Last, the author argues that decision-makers are required to ask themselves if they have the responsibility not to leave under given circumstances.
Supplementary material
The Diplomatic Representation Dataset
A dataset originally compiled by the author from the _Europa World Year Book, 1965-2013. This is not adapted from other compilations.
The Dataset of Conflict and Diplomatic Representation
A dataset showing diplomatic changes controlled with a dummy of _Conflict year_, being based on the Uppsala Conflict Data Program’s UCDP Dyadic Dataset, ver. 19.1 (Harbom, Melander & Wallensteen, 2008; Pettersson, Högbladh & Öberg, 2019).