American Government and Politics

American Government and Politics

THE POLITICAL ECONOMY MODEL: A BLUE WAVE FORECAST FOR 2020

Michael Lewis-Beck University of Iowa
,
Charles Tien Author ORCID home | opens in new tab Hunter College, CUNY & The Graduate Center, CUNY
Abstract
The Political Economy model represents one of the earliest political science forecasting models for presidential elections. It relies on a multiple regression equation with just a few predictor variables, drawing from leading theories of vote choice, measured several months before the election. Much has been said about the uniqueness of the 2020 election campaign, e.g., COVID-19, the extreme character of Trump’s rule, the dramatic economic collapse, widespread protests ignited by George Floyd’s killing, among other things. We do not deny these circumstances. However, we believe their effects are absorbed, then expressed, via the causal structure the model suggests. Here we apply the model to forecast the 2020 presidential election (popular and Electoral College votes), followed by forecasts for the House and Senate elections. We forecast a Democratic sweep.
Content
Thumbnail image of content item
Comments
Log in using your APSA account or Register to comment
Comments are not moderated before they are posted, but they can be removed by the site moderators if they are found to be in contravention of our Commenting Policy – please read this policy before you post. Comments should be used for scholarly discussion of the content in question. You can find more information about how to use the commenting feature here .
This site is protected by reCAPTCHA and the Google Privacy Policy and Terms of Service apply.