Red to Purple? Changing Demographics and Party Change in Texas

Objective: This study investigates the potential for party change in Texas, specifically if a generational replacement and demographic changes are leading to an increase in Democratic identification A competitive Texas has national political implications. Method: Using the Impressionable Years framework, party identification and ideology are analyzed with public opinion surveys of Texans and demographic data. Generation cohorts and race/ethnicity are the key variables of interest, and the analysis includes line graphs and linear regression. Results: The findings demonstrate younger cohorts of white Texans are less likely to identify as Republican and older cohorts of whites are most likely. All cohorts of people of color are likely to identify as Democrats. Conclusions: Generational and demographic changes are leading to an increase in Democratic Party identification and a decline in Republican identifiers. The mobilization by parties of young Texans, who are trending towards Democrats, is critical to the future of Texas politics.