Abstract
Despite the growing body of qualitative evidence suggesting collusion between gangs and political parties in various parts of the world, little has been done to study quan- titatively the extent to which criminal organizations may affect political elections in a context where all parties must negotiate. After conducting interviews with stakeholders in El Salvador, we have proposed a model of political crime. We test our predictions using police data and voting results and find that homicides in gang-controlled neighborhoods tend to decrease by 31 percent of the mean during electoral seasons. We also estimate that gang control is associated with a 2.5 percentage point increase in electoral participation. These effects are especially significant in neighborhoods where political parties have strong voting bases. This suggests parties negotiate with gangs to mobilize electoral participation in the areas where they are more likely to receive electoral support and increase their chances of winning.