Regime security and transnational thereat in post-Cold War Africa

Structural adjustments since the 1980s, changes in the international system with the end of the Cold War, and the accompanying shifts in international norms have transformed the vulnerability of African states and altered the nature of conflicts and coups. In this context, what causes illegal and forced leader exits – coups and regime seizures by rebel groups, and why? We present a theory that emphasizes the connection between coups and conflicts and underscores the significance of transnational non-state actors, due to the vulnerabilities of African states. Specifically, the presence of foreign-mobilized rebels before the onset of an insurgency increases the likelihood of fatal consequences for regime leaders. The result suggests that threats to African leaders are not solely a product of domestic vulnerabilities but are also influenced by the vulnerabilities of neighboring countries and international hostilities.