The Impact of Job Growth and Inflation on Presidential Elections

29 May 2024, Version 1
This content is an early or alternative research output and has not been peer-reviewed at the time of posting.


This study seeks to identify the economic forces and structural variables that influence the share of the popular vote received by incumbent political parties for the 17 elections over the 1956-2020 period. The regression findings show that percentage changes over differing time periods prior to the election in employment and the CPI are highly significant in explaining the share of the popular vote received by presidential candidates. The share of the popular vote received by third parties did not significantly affect the outcome of any of the presidential elections in our sample. The optimal look-back period was explored to measure the cumulative impact of the percentage change on employment and the CPI. The findings suggest that voters have a longer recall for job versus price changes. Finally, simulations are presented to forecast the share of the popular vote for the presidential candidate of the incumbent party in the 2024 election.




Comments are not moderated before they are posted, but they can be removed by the site moderators if they are found to be in contravention of our Commenting Policy [opens in a new tab] - please read this policy before you post. Comments should be used for scholarly discussion of the content in question. You can find more information about how to use the commenting feature here [opens in a new tab] .
This site is protected by reCAPTCHA and the Google Privacy Policy [opens in a new tab] and Terms of Service [opens in a new tab] apply.