Abstract
Why do some ethnic groups gain rights through mobilization against the state, while others become targeted for doing so? We argue that whether mobilization leads to inclusion or further exclusion of peripheral ethnic groups depends on the long-term trajectory of conflict. When peripheral groups have a history of conflict with the state, they often develop an oppositional identity that core groups can frame as a threat, thereby justifying intensified targeting and exclusion. We test this argument in the context of nineteenth-century South America, where core Creole elites established new nations on a fluid sociopolitical landscape, shaping ethnic boundaries that were still malleable while facing multiple and frequent conflicts with these groups. Our findings suggest that patterns of colonial-era conflict between white and non-white groups determined whether later inter-ethnic conflicts during state and nation-building led to ethnic exclusion and targeting.