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Abstract
The sharp momentum shifts in the presidential contest during the summer of 2024—induced by Joe Biden’s disastrous debate performance, Donald Trump’s attempted assassination, Biden’s withdrawal and the subsequent surge in support for Kamala Harris—have overshadowed the most striking feature of the 2024 election: Donald Trump’s return from exile in Mar-a-Lago to win easy nomination and a serious chance of returning to the White House despite the ignominy of the January 6, 2021, Capitol invasion, felony indictments in four jurisdictions (with convictions on all 34 counts in one of them), and losses in three civil suits since his departure from the White House 2021. This paper documents and attempts to explain this reality through analysis of hundreds of surveys probing reactions to Trump’s criminal charges and civil suits, with an eye to gauging their potential role in shaping voting choices in 2024. mp