The Narrowing Path: Rebel Leader Exile in the Age of Accountability

This paper examines an overlooked yet important outcome of the international justice regime on civil war: rebel leaders going into exile. Utilizing an original dataset detailing the exile trajectories of rebel leaders (1989-2017), including when and where they flee, the study reveals two key findings. First, as a rebel’s home government becomes more susceptible to the international legal regime, rebel leaders implicated in serious human rights violations are more likely to seek exile. Second, the international justice regime shrinks the options for exile for these culpable rebel leaders: unlike in previous eras, now, when pursuing asylum, rebel leaders strategically select destinations with a lower likelihood of legal repercussions—leaving fewer options for their safe haven. These findings have critical implications for the literature on civil war, international law, and how law enforcement affects the migration patterns of implicated political leaders.