More COPS, Higher Turnout?

What is the effect of police on the political lives of Americans? Extant studies suggest that scaling back police may increase political participation among Black and Latino Americans by reducing police surveillance and harassment. I theorize that police indirectly affect voter turnout through their effects on crime, and I argue that Black Americans are uniquely positioned to benefit from reductions in crime. Using data from a natural experiment induced by the disbursement of a federal hiring grant to municipal police agencies, I find evidence that hiring an additional police officer per 10,000 residents increases Black turnout by two percentage points. This increase can be attributed, at least in part, to reductions in criminal violence. Importantly, I find that mobilization primarily occurs among Black men — the group most at risk of criminal victimization. This project speaks to the importance of incorporating criminal violence into policy feedback theories of criminal-justice institutions.