When are Junctures Critical? The Legacies and Non-Legacies of the Suppression of Local Self-Government

The suppression of local self-government—a common feature of both imperialism and centralized authoritarianism—is often considered to be potentially legacy-producing. But under which circumstances does it lead to sustained changes in political behavior? We develop a framework that elucidates when suppression of local self-rule will or will not produce political legacies. Two factors are crucial: the duration of an intervention and the scope of repression. Enduring interventions characterized by encompassing repression are the most likely to generate persistent changes. Contrariwise, transient episodes characterized by limited repressiveness are unlikely to produce legacies. Given our theory’s broad character, we conduct empirical analyses in two markedly different settings: Poland, which was split between three empires, and Brazil, where a military regime installed appointed mayors in certain cities. In addition, we conduct a meta-analysis based on 23 further studies. The combined results demonstrate that the suppression of local self-government has varying potential to create legacies.