Economic Gains and Political Loyalty: How Rising Incomes Drive Support for Russia’s Authoritarian Regime

As the invasion of Ukraine enters its fourth year, Russia’s authoritarian regime remains strikingly resilient: the economy holds steady, elites stay loyal, and public support persists. One key reason, this analysis argues, is the substantial rise in employment and wages among groups long on the economic margins. The war is reshaping Russia’s economy and social structure—unevenly but significantly. Drawing on data from the Federal Tax Service, Rosstat, Central Bank reports, and major recruiting platforms, the author identifies regions, industries, and groups that have gained the most from war-driven spending, import substitution, and repatriated capital. Above all, low-income blue-collar workers in underdeveloped regions and once underperforming industries are now earning significantly more and have become key economic and social beneficiaries. Representing a sizable share of the population and espousing conservative, state-aligned values, these groups may be a driving force shaping Russia’s domestic trajectory and strained relationship with the West.