Are 16-year-olds mature enough to vote? Evidence from the Voto Joven in Latin America

Latin American countries were among the earliest worldwide to lower the voting age to 16, beginning with Nicaragua in 1984 and Brazil in 1988, followed more recently by Ecuador in 2008 and Argentina in 2012. Yet scholarly research examining the impacts of this policy change has predominantly concentrated on a limited number of European cases. This paper addresses that gap by analyzing data from the five most recent waves (2014–2023) of the AmericasBarometer surveys, which include respondents aged 16–17 in the four Latin American countries with voting eligibility at 16. I estimate latent political maturity using a Bayesian factor analysis model and find substantial variability in political maturity within all age groups. I find that, on average, individuals aged 16–17 display political maturity levels comparable to those of 18–19-year-olds and most older voters, indicating no meaningful difference in their overall voting aptitude.