Transnational Propaganda and Ethnic Polarization: Experimental Evidence from Malaysia

Authoritarian regimes increasingly engage in transnational information campaigns to expand their political and cultural influence beyond national borders. We argue that such operations can exacerbate ethnic polarization in target countries, specifically between diaspora communities and ethnic majority populations. Drawing on Social Identity Theory, we theorize that transnational propaganda exacerbates affective polarization by reducing intergroup social and political tolerance, while also increasing polarization in foreign policy preferences in racially diverse settings. To test these expectations, we conduct a preregistered survey experiment in Malaysia and examine whether China's transnational propaganda affects intergroup and foreign policy attitudes among ethnic Chinese and Malays. The results show that China's propaganda decreases Malays’ social tolerance toward Chinese Malaysians while strengthening Chinese Malaysians' -- but not Malays' -- agreement with China's foreign policy positions in the region. These findings highlight how transnational propaganda can undermine social cohesion and create divergent policy preferences within multicultural societies.