Beyond the Bloc: Black Voter Subgroups & Declining Democratic Support

Black voters’ support for Democratic presidential candidates reached a historic low in 2024, raising questions about the stability of racial partisanship in the United States. This paper evaluates three explanations for this shift: generational turnover, ideological change, and the weakening of socio-political norms discouraging Republican voting. Drawing on Cooperative Election Study data from 2020 and 2024, I find little evidence of broad ideological change: the share of Black respondents identifying as conservative, or endorsing conservative views, has remained steady. Yet those who hold such views have become substantially more likely to vote Republican, signaling a potential erosion of norms rather than an expansion of conservatism, resulting in polarization. By distinguishing between the subgroups of Democratic supporters who remain loyal and those prone to swing, this study illuminates the mechanisms of racial partisan change and contributes to debates on the durability of political identities and the conditions under which realignments occur.