Blame It on China? Liberal Order in Crisis and Belt and Road Initiative Effect

This study tests whether China’s Belt and Road Initiative (BRI) reshaped the Liberal International Order (LIO) using UNGA voting data from 1980–2024 and Interrupted Time Series Analysis. Results show a brief convergence toward Beijing in 2013, but the effect faded: non-participants moved further away, while participants stayed closer yet without extra convergence. The BRI thus reinforces ties with aligned states and some developing countries, but lacks durable systemic impact. It represents selective regional influence rather than full LIO reordering, contributing to debates on China’s incremental challenge and providing quantitative evidence for future research.