Leader cue or partisanship? Categorizing lasting electoral support for a charismatic movement

The survival of charismatic movements following the departure of their leader is contingent on their capacity to transform personal loyalty into political support for a broader platform. In Ecuador, despite the exit of Rafael Correa from the presidency in 2017, his movement prevailed as a dominant force, and the ongoing divide between supporters and opponents of Correa continues to structure voting behavior. Analyzing the enduring support for this charismatic movement, we identify two related yet distinct tendencies. While a considerable number of adherents self-identify as Correístas and exhibit strong partisan loyalty, others consider themselves neutral but rely on emotional affinity toward the leader as a voting cue. We introduce the concept of charismatic partisanship to distinguish these loyal followers from leader-cued voters. Drawing on post-electoral surveys of three presidential elections, the analysis shows that charismatic partisans are consistently more likely than emotionally attached citizens to support the movement’s endorsed candidate.