Analyzing the dynamics of disinformation and fact-checking in the Russian-Ukrainian war according to game theory: An analytical study and modeling based on EUvsDisinfo data (2022–2023)

The Russian-Ukrainian conflict has been characterised by an unprecedented intensification of information warfare techniques, with state-sponsored disinformation campaigns becoming key components of military strategy. This study examines the strategic dynamics of fact-checking mechanisms as a countermeasure to disinformation, employing game theory to model adversarial interactions between disinformation producers and European fact-checking organisations. This paper addresses a critical lacuna in the existing literature, namely the absence of game theory-based quantitative frameworks for analysing the efficacy of fact-checking strategies in conflict contexts. Through a systematic content analysis of 925 fact-checking operations (N=925) drawn from the EUvsDisinfo database, covering the period from February 2022 to August 2023, the study taxonomises disinformation tactics and counter-strategies. It also constructs an empirical payoff matrix and identifies optimal strategic responses. This study contributes a novel and empirically grounded application of game theory to strategic communication research, providing actionable insights for practitioners.