Electoral Spectators: 2024 US Presidential Election and Online Political Discourse in China

Democratic elections abroad provide rare, observable signals that citizens under authoritarian rule consume as electoral spectators. I study Chinese-language social media discourse surrounding the 2024 U.S. presidential election using 14,606 posts and 379,725 comments from Weibo and Rednote. At baseline, Weibo discourse is substantially more anti-American and anti-democracy than Rednote, consistent with exposure to state-curated narratives. Yet when the contest resolves peacefully, evaluations shift: difference-in-differences estimates show Weibo converging toward Rednote's more favorable baseline. Post-level sentiment diffuses to comments, with significant within-thread alignment across outcomes. Three dynamics emerge among commenters: Within-user fixed effect models suggest that Trump support rises after victory, especially among mainland users; anti-U.S. and anti-democracy expression declines even as overall discussion contracts; and political engagement falls once uncertainty resolves. These findings suggest that state-curated environments shape baseline priors but do not fully insulate publics from observable signals that democracies can function.