Religious Divides as Diplomatic Tools: Islamism, Sectarianism, and MENA Public Opinion toward Regional Leaders

In the Middle East and North Africa (MENA), religious divides such as Islamism and sectarianism shape attitudes toward foreign leaders and their countries. Using Arab Barometer and causal mediation analysis, this study examines how perceptions of regional leaders mediate the effects of these domestic cleavages on Arab public opinion. Results confirm that perceptions of leaders significantly influence favorability toward their countries, though reciprocal effects also exist. Erdoğan’s Islamist appeal boosts Turkey’s image among Islamists but diminishes it among Shia and secular publics. Khamenei’s sectarian alignment strengthens Iran’s standing among Shia while limiting broader appeal. Bin Salman’s effect is modest, as his post-Salafi reformism fails to offset negative perceptions. Findings show that ideological divides and religious identities act as cognitive filters shaping attitudes toward foreign actors. This dynamic works alongside soft power and structural factors, highlighting how leadership cues shape regional competition under populism and authoritarian rule in MENA and beyond.