The Preference-Expectation Gap and Its Consequences for Candidates from Underrepresented Backgrounds

Voters may personally prefer female, younger, racial minority, and homosexual candidates over male, older, racial majority, and heterosexual candidates, but (inaccurately) expect other voters to prefer otherwise. This preference-expectation gap drives behavior characterized as "strategic discrimination" or "pragmatic bias." Joe Biden’s nomination in the 2020 U.S. Democratic primary highlights its consequences, but little work generalizes it. This paper improves the external and internal validity of existing research by (1) examining the gap’s consequences beyond vote choice, (2) assessing underrepresented attributes beyond gender and race, and (3) fielding surveys in Japan and the U.S. We find voters in U.S. Democratic primaries and Japan prefer candidates from underrepresented backgrounds but expect them to win less often. This gap discourages voters from committing time and financial resources to preferred candidates. Especially in Japan, lower expectations weaken the connection between preference and participation in higher-cost activities such as rally attendance and vote solicitation.