Confessional Delegitimization as a Technology of Sovereign Destruction: A Burke Sovereignty Index Analysis of the Iran War, 2026 (working paper)

This article analyzes the US–Israel war against Iran (February 28 – March 9, 2026) through the seven-dimensional Burke Sovereignty Index (BSI). The central hypothesis is that the anti-Shiite vector should be viewed not as a secondary confessional variable but as a basic mechanism of sovereign delegitimization — directed not against Iranian policies, but the state's political legitimacy itself. This hypothesis requires verification through comparative cases and post-conflict data. The analysis shows that the most direct impact of the anti-Shiite vector falls on the cultural and cognitive BSI dimensions. Its influence on the political, military, and informational dimensions is indirect, mediated by lowered normative barriers to other pressures. The empirical base consists of 27 indicators with graduated verifiability (Levels A–D) across seven BSI dimensions. Post-strike BSI estimates are heuristic, presented as ranges with explicit assumptions. Iran's baseline BSI: 457.9/700 (65.4%). Model estimate for March 9, 2026: 304–358/700 (mean ~330).