Who will win the election? A Citizen Forecast in the 2026 Korean Local Electioin

This research note introduces citizen forecasting to the South Korean context using original panel survey data from the 2026 local elections. Unlike vote intention, citizen forecasting asks respondents who they expect will win, regardless of their own preference. Focusing on Seoul and Gyeonggi, we show that citizen forecasts leaned strongly toward Democratic Party victories and became more settled as election day approached. We also show that vote expectation was more favorable to the Democratic Party than vote intention, suggesting that citizen forecasts are not simply a restatement of personal preference. Finally, we preregister post-election expectations about whether political discussion networks are associated with forecast accuracy.