Cuba, Migration Leverage, and the Mariel Precedent: A Policy Analysis

This policy analysis argues that U.S. policy toward Cuba functions as a form of coercive pressure whose costs fall heavily on ordinary Cubans. It connects embargoes, oil restrictions, and recent legal actions against Cuban leaders to a broader strategy designed to force political change. Drawing on the 1980 Mariel boatlift and the scholarly debate about its labor market effects, the analysis examines whether migration can operate as diplomatic leverage. The central claim is that the Mariel precedent reveals a contradiction in U.S. policy: Washington endorses Cuban freedom in principle, but faces political constraints when Cuban mobility becomes immediate and large scale.