Political Polarization, Incumbents’ Personalist Ambitions, and Democratic Backsliding: A Cross-National Quantitative Analysis

A growing body of research highlights the potential threat political polarization poses to democracy. However, few studies directly, systematically, and rigorously examine the impact of polarization on democratic backsliding, explore the heterogeneity of its effects, and uncover the micro-level psychological mechanisms underlying this heterogeneity. Drawing on cross-national data at both macro and micro levels, this article further demonstrates that a higher level of polarization in a democratic country tends to bring a lower level of democracy; moreover, the adverse effect of polarization is amplified by the personalist ambitions of incumbents, and the mass-psychological foundation underlying this heterogeneous effect is that polarization makes citizens more likely to endorse personalist politics. This research integrates environmental, actor-centric, and mass-psychological explanations, thereby offering a more comprehensive understanding of the global rise of democratic backsliding.