Territorial aspect of nuclear deterrence since the war in Ukraine: US, Russia, China, and Europe

This article examines how Russia’s war against Ukraine has reshaped the relationship between nuclear deterrence, territorial revision and political security across the five nuclear-weapon states that gave Ukraine assurances of territorial integrity and security in exchange for nuclear disarmament in 1994. The study develops two concepts synthesizing nuclear leverage and territories to secure governing elites or populations: geonuclear expansion and geonuclear protection. Drawing on securitisation theory and qualitative analysis of Russia, China, the United States, the United Kingdom and France, the study examines changes in nuclear agendas since 2014. It finds Russia to be a case of accomplished geonuclear expansion, China an alerting or conditional case, and the three democratic nuclear powers cases of geonuclear protection. The comparison shows that the credibility of territorial assurances differs between democracies and autocracies. The war in Ukraine therefore represents a global turning point in the nuclear politics of territorial borders.