Exposure to Climate Policy Costs and Public Backlash: Evidence from Germany

Previous research has shown that people often punish their government for climate policy when they are directly affected. Is this electoral backlash driven by a lasting shift in political attitudes? We hypothesize that people who expect economic losses from policy change revoke their support for similar policies and lose trust in political institutions deemed responsible. We test this claim for the case of Germany using a difference-in-differences design. In 2023, the government proposed an installation ban for fossil-based heating systems, which triggered a contentious public debate. Drawing on survey panel data collected before, during, and after the debate, we find that disproportionate exposure to the predicted costs of the policy had no effect on support for other climate policies. However, it caused a significant decline in willingness to pay for further climate policy and a loss of trust in government. These effects persisted even after the ban was postponed.