Synthetic Campaign Communication and Election Confidence in the Age of Artificial Intelligence

Generative AI raises two campaign questions: whether perceived exposure to synthetic material is associated with confidence in election results and what citizens are willing to tolerate from candidates. We examine both using two quota-based cross-sectional surveys of US adults fielded during and after the 2024 presidential election (N = 1,003 and 1,059). Respondents reporting more frequent exposure to suspected synthetic campaign material express lower election confidence in both waves. Yet election confidence is not independently associated with tolerance for such material. Tolerance is instead lower among respondents with greater technological familiarity and higher among those who distrust professional news media. These patterns distinguish perceived exposure, which is associated with election confidence, from tolerance, which is structured by familiarity and media distrust. More broadly, the more synthetic material citizens believe they encounter, the less confident they are in the legitimacy of the electoral process.