Two Terms of Endearment? Incumbent-Party Performance in U.S. Presidential Elections

29 March 2024, Version 2
This content is an early or alternative research output and has not been peer-reviewed at the time of posting.

Abstract

Presidential elections are arguably the most consequential recurring political event in the United States. Understanding the factors that determine their outcomes, therefore, is of substantial importance. One proposed factor pertains to candidates’ incumbency status, yet its nature is complex and difficult to study with observational data. In particular, the individual-level mechanisms underlying incumbency effects remain surprisingly unclear. This Letter proposes many citizens generally believe that, ceteris paribus, presidents should be afforded two terms. Existence of such a norm implies that incumbency status possesses an inherent effect, operating independent of other mechanisms stemming from incumbency. A large, pre-registered survey experiment is employed to isolate incumbency status, finding evidence for a one-term advantage and clarifying the nature of the two-term disadvantage. The study thus uncovers a micro-foundational mechanism underlying incumbent-party performance in presidential elections. Finally, analyses of panel data explore which voters may be systematically inclined to vote based upon incumbency status.

Keywords

incumbency
elections
voting
presidency

Comments

Comments are not moderated before they are posted, but they can be removed by the site moderators if they are found to be in contravention of our Commenting Policy [opens in a new tab] - please read this policy before you post. Comments should be used for scholarly discussion of the content in question. You can find more information about how to use the commenting feature here [opens in a new tab] .
This site is protected by reCAPTCHA and the Google Privacy Policy [opens in a new tab] and Terms of Service [opens in a new tab] apply.