Abstract
Globally, persistent housing deficits have driven large-scale investments in public housing, yet such programs often face resistance rooted in crime concerns. We examine whether these concerns reflect actual insecurity or misperceptions, and how they shape political support. Focusing on Brazil’s Minha Casa, Minha Vida program, we combine a program-embedded natural experiment, a large beneficiary survey, and an instrumental variable analysis of lottery participants. We find no evidence that public housing increases city-wide crime. Fewer than 1% of beneficiaries report wanting to leave due to violence, and relocation is not causally associated with insecurity or security-related claims. Beneficiaries report high residential satisfaction and improved well-being. We then assess how crime framing shapes policy preferences through a survey experiment. While baseline support for public housing is high, it declines when crime is framed as city-wide. Further, higher-income respondents reduce support for public security spending unless crime is portrayed as directly affecting them.
