AI’s Economy and Its Political and Institutional Consequences

We examine the political consequences of artificial intelligence’s economic impact. Although AI may affect nonroutine jobs in particular, we show that current models about the vulnerability level of occupations and economic sectors differ widely in their forecasts. This may explain why public opinion is not settled about the effects of AI. While many fear AI may displace them from their jobs, a majority seems optimistic about its overall impact. Responses vary, however, by cohort and depending on survey framing. AI’s current training and computing needs have magnified capital concentration and business investment in fixed assets, intensifying the technological sector’s interest in regulatory capture. Taken together, AI’s effects on labor and capital may strain democracy unless a set of policies we outline here are gradually implemented.