How State and Protester Violence Affect Protest Dynamics

07 May 2021, Version 3
This content is an early or alternative research output and has not been peer-reviewed at the time of posting.


How do state and protester violence affect whether protests grow or shrink? Previous research finds conflicting results for how violence affects protest dynamics. This paper argues that expectations and emotions should generate an n-shaped relationship between the severity of state repression and changes in protest size the next day. Protester violence should reduce the appeal of protesting and increase the expected cost of protesting, decreasing subsequent protest size. Since testing this argument requires precise measurements, a pipeline is built that applies convolutional neural networks to images shared in geolocated tweets. Continuously valued estimates of state and protester violence are generated per city-day for 24 cities across five countries, as are estimates of protest size and the age and gender of protesters. The results suggest a solution to the repression-dissent puzzle and join a growing body of research benefiting from the use of social media to understand subnational conflict.


social movements
social media
machine learning
convolutional neural network
big data
computer vision

Supplementary materials

Supplementary Materials
Information and results that could not fit into the paper.


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